{"id":6962,"date":"2024-07-09T01:00:15","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T07:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/?p=6962"},"modified":"2024-12-19T15:20:46","modified_gmt":"2024-12-19T22:20:46","slug":"if-it-dont-fit-you-must-forget","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/if-it-dont-fit-you-must-forget\/","title":{"rendered":"If It Don\u2019t Fit You Must Forget"},"content":{"rendered":"\r\n<p>Trendlines are often fake news. How can you separate fact from fiction? It&#8217;s easy.<\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" src=\"https:\/\/player.vimeo.com\/video\/913781245?title=0&amp;byline=0&amp;portrait=0\" width=\"720\" height=\"405\" frameborder=\"0\" allowfullscreen=\"allowfullscreen\"><span data-mce-type=\"bookmark\" style=\"display: inline-block; width: 0px; overflow: hidden; line-height: 0;\" class=\"mce_SELRES_start\">\ufeff<\/span><\/iframe><\/p>\r\n\r\n\r\n\r\n<p>&#8220;I&#8217;m Jay Arthur, author of \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.amazon.com\/Lean-Six-Sigma-Demystified-Second\/dp\/0071749098\/\">Lean Six Sigma Demystified<\/a>\u201d and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/demo\/\">QI Macros [software]<\/a>.<\/p>\r\n<p>&#8220;One of the things that really irritates me about Excel is it&#8217;ll add a trend line to any data, but it does not add a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/hypothesis-testing\/regression\/\">\u201cgoodness-of-fit\u201d metric<\/a> automatically. It&#8217;s called \u201cR squared,\u201d and R squared should be like .8 or 80% fit in general.<\/p>\r\n<p>&#8220;I&#8217;ve seen lots of charts and lots of posters at lots of improvement conferences where the goodness of fit metric is less than 50%. What?! So it&#8217;s not really an improvement. Just because the line goes down doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s&#8230; [an improvement]. That&#8217;s all fake news. Until you have a goodness-of-fit metric on there, it&#8217;s just all fake news. Don&#8217;t believe any of it.<\/p>\r\n<p>&#8220;For some reason I was thinking about this: \u201cIf it don&#8217;t fit, you must forget.\u201d If it don&#8217;t fit, you must forget.<\/p>\r\n<p>&#8220;So I don&#8217;t believe this stuff that&#8217;s out there; don&#8217;t believe it if it doesn&#8217;t tell you what the goodness-of-fit metric is. If you get over .50 you might be getting somewhere, right? There might be a process change which causes the 50%, but the only way to know that is to draw a control chart of that; most people are using <a href=\"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/free-excel-tips\/dunce-charts\/\">line, bar and pie charts<\/a>: the Three Stooges of charts.<\/p>\r\n<p>&#8220;Let&#8217;s go up a notch. Let&#8217;s go to grad school. Let&#8217;s start using advanced tools.<\/p>\r\n<p>&#8220;That&#8217;s my Improvement Insight for this week. Let&#8217;s go out and improve something.&#8221;<\/p>\r\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Trendlines are often fake news. How can you separate fact from fiction? It&rsquo;s easy. &#65279; &ldquo;I&rsquo;m Jay Arthur, author of &ldquo;Lean Six Sigma Demystified&rdquo; and QI Macros [software]. &ldquo;One of the things that really irritates me about Excel is it&rsquo;ll add a trend line to any data, but it does not add a &ldquo;goodness-of-fit&rdquo; metric [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":7402,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[290],"tags":[558,168,441],"class_list":["post-6962","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-improvement-insights","tag-goodness-of-fit","tag-qi-macros","tag-trend-line"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6962","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6962"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6962\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7254,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6962\/revisions\/7254"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7402"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6962"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6962"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.qimacros.com\/lean-six-sigma-blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6962"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}